Warnock-Walker Senate Race: The Takeaway

Because our company does political strategy, I receive inquiries after elections, such as the runoff yesterday between Raphael Warnock and Herschel Walker. What do I think? Am I finally celebrating? “An increased margin in the Senate! Come on, Christine; you have to be thrilled. Oh happy day!” “Not so fast,” I sadly respond. Let’s review some data I see as relevant in this runoff and to the future election, just two short years away:

• During the election a month ago, Republican Gov. Brian Kemp, the incumbent (a fact that can’t be ignored, as it’s part of the equation), received 250,000 more votes than the Republican in the Senate race, Herschel Walker. Kemp received 50% of the vote versus Stacey Abrams, who received 49%. That means that Republicans who voted either split their vote or didn’t vote in the Senate race. Perhaps they just couldn’t pull the lever for Walker.

• Tuesday's runoff had 1,814,848 votes for Warnock and 1,719,297 for Walker — a difference of 95,551 votes. I must add my editorial here: It is inconceivable to me that more than 1,700,000 individuals voted for a man who presented himself the way Walker did. Inconceivable.

As Trump heads toward the obscurity brought on by the Republican Party moderates who are finally saying “no way,” the Herschel Walkers of the world, who Trump put on the ballot, will go away. Who will replace them is what matters moving forward. I assure you, the Republican Party will put up a candidate who will not have the same voting differential as the one in this past election. Georgia will go red, because that is who Georgia is: Red. Southern. Cemented. Red, even though education should tell these people that the party leaders are all about staying in power and directing financial gains to those who put them in power. And all of this is done on the backs of those who vote against their self-interest, electing individuals who don’t take care of them at all but who simply sit under the red Republican banner. And the South shall rise again. And the SCOTUS, bought and paid for by the same individuals who are controlling those who control our government in D.C., will support what they need to support in order to keep the power with those who toe the line. So, if I’m right, the edge that the Democrats have had in 2020 and 2022 goes away with Trump’s demise. Those moderate Republicans in Arizona, Indiana, and Georgia? They all come home to the Republican Party in 2024, and so it goes. End of story. Game over. And my plan? My strategy recommendations? The Democrats need to understand that Trump is their best shot at retaining what little edge they’ve had in keeping the demise of the republic at bay. And they need to put all their money behind educating the worker bees who keep the Republicans in office because they don’t realize that doing so is against their self-interest. They have to do this via channels of communication that Republicans use, including snail mail, all media platforms, and local outreach.

--Christine Merser, Managing Partner, Blue Shoe Content